EnviroSpin Watch

"A skilful obscurantist", moi!.....

I quite liked being dubbed "a skilful obscurantist" in today's The Groaniad: 'Consensus is not proof ' ('Letters', The Guardian, May 3). Better than being called an 'obscurant', and, in climate-change terms, to 'cloud over' seems more than apposite. I wonder if, however, it may be a case of obscurum per obscurius (or ignotum per ignotius).

So, let me cloud over climate change just a teeny aerosol more. Here's a list of some of the more important factors governing climate change, all, of course, working together at different, but intermeshed, time-scales:

+ The changing cosmic ray flux (CRF);
+ Solar magnetic cycles;
+ Sunspot cycles;
+ Meteorite impacts;
+ Cosmic dust;
+ Changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun;
+ Changes in the angle of tilt of the Earth upon its axis;
+ Shorter duration 'wobbles' of the Earth upon its axis;
+ The changing shape of the Earth, or the Earth's mean dynamic oblateness parameter (J₂);
+ The changing rotational velocity of the Earth's core;
+ Changes in the Earth's magnetic field;
+ Tectonic movements of the Earth;
+ Volcanic eruptions;
+ Changes in the circulation patterns of the oceans;
+ Changes in ocean salinity and chemistry;
+ Changes in ice-sheet stability (the mass-balance of glaciers);
+ Changes in sea-ice thickness;
+ Changes in atmospheric water vapour, the most important 'greenhouse' gas of all;
+ Clouds and cloudiness;
+ Natural variations in atmospheric gases, including carbon dioxide and methane
+ Changing albedo (reflectivity of Earth) through landscape change, natural and human;
+ Overall surface radiative energy fluxes;
+ Vegetation, agricultural and industrial fires and their emissions;
+ The emission of aerosols, both natural and human;
+ The emission of tar balls;
+ Human-induced emission of 'greenhouse' gases;
+ Other known factors not listed;
+ Unknown factors;
+ Non-linear feedback links for all of the above;
+ The chaotic factor - the flip of a butterfly's wing.

Yes, of course, we can manage climate change predictably by fiddling at the margins with a couple of politically-chosen factors [apologies, British irony again]. Pity that in so complex a coupled, non-linear, chaotic system, not doing something at the margins is as unpredictable as doing something.

Philip, delighted to be clouding the issue. He will continue to do so. Afternoon tea?