A Weblog monitoring coverage of environmental issues and science in the UK media. By Professor Emeritus Philip Stott. The aim is to assess whether a subject is being fairly covered by press, radio, and television. Above all, the Weblog will focus on science, but not just on poor science. It will also bring to public notice good science that is being ignored because it may be politically inconvenient.

Sunday, May 15, 2005

Cool! Climate change and cosmic-ray (CR) intensity (again).....

A fascinating new paper has just appeared in Advances in Space Research: 'Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data' (A.V. Belov, L.I. Dorman, R.T. Gushchina, V.N. Obridko, B.D. Shelting and V.G. Yanke, in press,
Copyright © 2005 COSPAR Published by Elsevier Ltd., available online since May 3 - DOI = doi:10.1016/j.asr.2005.03.088):

In this paper, a method of predicting the expected contribution to global climate change of cosmic-ray (CR) intensity is presented. The work is based on the forecasting of galactic CR intensity time variation in the near-future based on solar activity data and on determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms.

This provides the possibility of making a prediction for the expected part of global climate change caused by long-term CR intensity variation. In the paper, the authors use the model of cosmic-ray modulation in the heliosphere, examining the relations between long-term CR intensity variations and parameters of the solar magnetic field. The latter can now be predicted with some accuracy.

By using this prediction, the expected CR intensity variations in near Earth space can also be estimated with a fair degree of accuracy.

There are two possibilities: (1) predicting CR intensity for 1–6 months by using a delay of long-term CR variations relative to the effects of solar activity; and (2) predicting CR intensity for the next solar cycle.

In the second case, the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. In both cases, reliable long-term CR and solar-activity data, as well as the solar magnetic field, are necessary. For the solar magnetic field, the authors employ the results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories).

The resulting forecasting of long-term CR intensity variation is then used for the estimation of the part of global climate change caused by CR intensity changes (i.e. the influence on global cloudiness).

The authors conclude:

On the basis of solar magnetic field data, by taking into account tilt angle data and data on reversals, a sound determination of CR-intensity change and prediction can be made for the future, with a correlation coefficient between observed and predicted intensities of about 0.97 for the 1 month prediction, 0.91 for the 6 months prediction, and 0.80 for the 12 months prediction.

For the period of about 2 years ahead (i.e., up to the end of 2006), the CR-intensity is expected to increase by some 10%. It is thus further expected that some small global cooling will occur with an increase in precipitation corresponding to the increase in the global-cloud covering of about 2.0-2.5%. [my italic]

I bet this doesn't get reported much in the British press!

Philip, all for a few new variables clouding those 'global warming' certainties! Late breakfast in the cool garden? Coffee and croissants. Yum!

[New counter, June 19, 2006, with loss of some data]

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