EnviroSpin Watch

Some sea-level sanity.....

As we know, there is an awful lot of spume sprayed about over sea-level rise. If you would like to get some salty common sense on sea-levels, then you should read the following balanced review, just published:

Robin Edwards: 'Sea levels: abrupt events and mechanisms of change.' 'Progress Report' in Progress in Physical Geography 29(4), December 2005, pp. 599-608.

[Right: Katsushika Hokusai (1760-1849): 'The Great Wave Off Kanagawa' (Fugaku sanjurokkei: Kanagawaoki namiura) (1831). 25.4 x 37.1 cm colour woodcut; the original is in the Hakone Museum in Japan. This image appears to be in the public domain.]

This is a cautious and careful commentary which deals with tsunami, seismic events, palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, model simulation and marine data, meltwater pulses, and recent sea-level changes.

Throughout the author stresses the problems of obtaining accurate and meaningful data, concluding:

"...correlations are compromised by the failure of many studies to account adequately for the vertical uncertainties associated with the sea-level indicators used."

An important observation examined is that "separating mass-related eustatic sea-level changes from those due to steric effects or the redistribution of water around the globe becomes increasingly difficult after the early-Holocene addition of meltwater diminishes." Interestingly, a recent fall in eustatic sea-level in the central Indian Ocean based on observations from the Maldives may well tie in with the mass redistribution theory.

I trust the IPCC will take note of this thorough and balanced review. It demonstrates tellingly the immense difficulties of collecting and interpreting data and theories relating to sea-level change. The only real conclusions are the immense complexity both of the subject and of the sea-level changes themselves.

Philip, how pleasant to read balanced science rather than hype. Time for a nice, gentle latte, I deem, to calm the ups and downs of life.